Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
